China is trying to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, but they’re in a precarious position because they need to appear neutral while also ensuring that any agreement doesn’t harm their allies in Moscow. Bonnie Glaser from the German Marshall Fund says that if Russia were to lose in a settlement, it would not serve Chinese interests.
Li Hui is visiting Europe this week to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, in an attempt to end the Ukraine crisis. China has been widely seen as supporting Russia throughout the war, but most analysts view Russia as the junior partner in this relationship. Both countries share a deep antipathy and distrust of the West.
China’s involvement in brokering peace is driven by self-interest rather than altruism. Ending the war is undesirable for China as it affects the global economy, but it also poses potential political risks. A defeated Russia could experience instability, disorder, and even regime change, which China seeks to prevent. By managing the negotiation process, China can safeguard Russia’s image and ensure it doesn’t suffer humiliation in any peace deal with Ukraine.
According to analysts, China’s peace-brokering efforts will include an important face-saving component. Beijing will likely aim to help Russia concede as little as possible while persuading Ukraine and its Western supporters to reconcile. A humiliated Russia would not align with China’s ambitions to challenge the perceived hegemony of the West, as China’s narrative of its rise to global governance centers on the idea of irreversible decline for Western democracies.
Although China successfully mediated between Saudi Arabia and Iran, achieving a similar outcome between Ukraine and Russia will be much more challenging. The bad blood between the two sides and the high stakes involved make reaching an agreement an uphill battle. Ukraine insists on Russian troops withdrawing from occupied areas and the restoration of its territorial sovereignty, including the return of annexed regions. Russia demands recognition of its sovereignty over the annexed areas and the independence of pro-Russian separatist “republics,” along with a demilitarized Ukraine and guarantees against NATO membership.
There may be room for negotiations, but both sides are unwilling to concede on territory. Ukraine’s sovereignty depends on the war’s outcome, while Putin has staked his regime and Russia’s sense of self on defeating Ukraine and its Western backers. China’s ability to navigate between long-term enemies provides hope for resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but mediating between these two countries poses a significantly greater challenge.
As China continues its diplomatic efforts, the complexity of the situation and the deeply entrenched positions of both sides make achieving a peaceful resolution a formidable task.