Cyclonic Storm Mocha has developed over the southern Bay of Bengal, causing meteorologists to closely monitor its movements. The storm is expected to make landfall near the Myanmar-Bangladesh border region in the coming days, potentially causing catastrophic damage.
Mocha’s outer cloud bands stretch almost 1,000 miles across the northeastern Indian Ocean, indicating the severity of the storm. On Thursday, the cyclone had sustained winds around 60 mph, but as it moves north and northeast towards landfall over the weekend or early next week, it is expected to rapidly develop into a severe cyclonic storm.
The storm is expected to make landfall as a major tropical cyclone and perhaps a catastrophic one. The current landfall zone is likely to focus on northern Myanmar near the Bangladesh border, a region known for tropical cyclone mega-disasters and currently in the throes of war.
Mocha’s track is more certain than its intensity, but official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predict the storm will have sustained winds of at least 100 to 115 mph at landfall. It is much more difficult to determine tropical cyclone intensity, and some of the best weather models suggest that as the storm approaches shore, it will be much stronger than officially forecast.
There have already been more than 10,000 people evacuated from low-lying areas in the region in the wake of the landfall, according to Myanmar Now. People near or in the low-lying areas should finalize preparations or evacuate as necessary.
The region is notorious for big storm surges, which are exacerbated by the funneling of water caused by the bay’s unique geography. The bay has a long history of major storms, and the northern bay in particular has high population density, making the region especially vulnerable to the storm’s impacts.
Another factor that makes this situation particularly concerning is the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which has resulted in nearly 2 million internally displaced people and another 1 million refugees. Because of the presence of several giant camps for the displaced in the area, large populations may be at additional risk due to their proximity to the landfall region, which has historically been an active fighting spot.
The combination of a major tropical cyclone and civil unrest makes this a dangerous situation that requires swift action to minimize damage and loss of life. People in the affected region should closely monitor the storm and follow all necessary precautions to ensure their safety.